Myths #3: Hodgson’s Liverpool Record Compares Closely To Dalglish’s

I have recently been reading tweets that suggest that Kenny Dalglish has barely improved on Roy Hodgson’s record for Liverpool, despite having a lot more money to play with.

MoosaMUFC14 pointed out: “LFC under Dalglish (PL, FA and EL): Played 33, won 16, drawn 9, lost 8. Hodgson: Played 29, won 13, drawn 8, lost 8.”

Whilst DylanMUFC14 (I assume they must be teenage brothers) said: “Dalglish has improved #LFC’s League, FA Cup & European results by just 6.8% on the Roy Hodgson era,despite spending £91.85m more..”

Blimey, and I thought Dalglish had been doing a much better job than Hodgson. How wrong I was.

Or was I?

For starters, it seems a little unfair to compare their records in all competitions, doesn’t it? Hodgson’s one domestic cup tie was at home against Northampton Town of League Two; Dalglish had to start away at Old Trafford, and has still yet to have a home cup tie (even if the standard of opposition has been kinder since that match with Manchester United).

Also, Roy had the virtue of managing Liverpool through the qualifiers and group stage of the much maligned Europa League. Four of his thirteen wins (or 31% of them) came against FK Rabotnicki and Trabzonspor for pity’s sake.

The only fair way to compare their records, to my mind at least, is to look at their points-per-game figures in the league for their spells in the managerial hotseat at Anfield:

Dalglish is a long way ahead, who would have thought it? Certainly not the people who take great joy in tweeting stats without a hint of context.

To illustrate how far Dalglish is ahead, he would still have a better points-per-game average than Hodgson finished with even if Liverpool lost their next twelve games in a row! Roy’s Liverpool record of 1.25 points-per-game (25 points from 25 league games) was simply never going to be good enough.

By all means debate if Kenny has made the most of the money he has spent, or if he has the team playing better football than Roy did, but to try and suggest their records are comparable is way off the mark.

Now, if you’ll excuse me, I need to start tweeting these facts…

Update 21st November 2011 – unfortunately the distorted statistics for Hodgson and Dalglish have now entered the mainstream media; James Lawton of The Independent wrote a piece on the 19th November using statistics to try and show that the gulf between the two men’s records isn’t that much, even though the figures he used to support his argument showed that it is. Not Lawton’s smartest move. Read more analysis of his poor article in this free piece on The Tomkins Times.

You may also be interested to know that following Liverpool’s fine win at Chelsea, Dalglish would now have to lose fourteen league games in a row to lower himself to Hodgson’s points-per-game average. Hardly anything in it, eh Mr Lawton?

Please take a look at my other articles, a list of which can be found here. Update 01/05/12: Now that he has been appointed as England manager, I have also compared Roy’s record to his predecessors here.

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30 thoughts on “Myths #3: Hodgson’s Liverpool Record Compares Closely To Dalglish’s

    • I agree, though I suspect the majority of people using the stats showing that Hodgson has a similar record to Dalglish are not Liverpool fans at all. If you search Twitter as I did to find those figures, they’ve mostly been posted by people with MUFC in their username (morons to a man indeed ;-)).

      Thanks for reading.

    • You’re welcome, and thanks for reading.

      I’ll be the first to say that I’ve not agreed with everything that Dalglish has done, but the myth that Hodgson’s record is similar needs putting to bed – please share as far and wide as possible!

      Cheers.

    • Thanks mate, unfortunately I don’t doubt you’re right there regarding LFC fans perpetuating myths, it’s been going on since Rafa’s time after all.

      Thanks for reading the truth though!

  1. So the only way that you want to compare your last two managers LFC fans and Andrew Beasley in particular…. is to basically take off Hodgson any results that were not in the Premiership…..whilst paying no attention to the fact of whom was being played in the Premiership….LFC’s next two games are against Chelsea and Man City…..following, of course, the mighty home draw against Swansea!!! So the context you are providing Beez….is very limited….And gob smackingly pays NO attention to the main point being made by these critics…..that Hodgson had very limited transfer funds and very little good will from the club’s fans……whilst Dalglish has had crazy amounts of good will…..KING Kenny….and shed loads of funds..£90 millions more..more really than anyone else except those clubs for whom money doesnt matter i.e. City…..Moreover there is no mention of the fact that Hodgson pledged to keep Torres – the source of £50 millions of Kenny’s £90 millions…..and Dalglish sold him two weeks after taking over…..Basically selling an iconic…previously worshipped striker…..to a rival!!! And replacing him with a £35 milion pound one that not even the hugest Liverpool fan could accept is worth a tenth of that money at present on the field playing values….YOu Beez are the one that should see the FULL context of what is happening at your club….not select a context to make a favourable comparison that leaves more than half the vital factors out!!!

    • I think you may have missed the point of the piece Phil. My aim is to dispel the myth that Hodgson and Dalglish have similar records, as per the tweets included at the start of the post, and not to assess the money spent or the quality of football played, as I mention at the end.

      If you want to talk context in regards to the league games, let’s take a look at how they both fared against the top teams:

      Arsenal : Roy P1 D1 (at home)
      Kenny P2 W1 D1 (both away)

      Chelsea: Roy P1 W1 (home)
      Kenny P1 W1 (away)

      Everton: (not a top team, but always difficult as a derby):
      Roy P1 L1 (away)
      Kenny P2 W1 D1 (one home, one away)

      Manchester City: Roy P1 L1 (away)
      Kenny P1 W1 (home)

      Manchester United: Roy P1 L1 (away)
      Kenny P2 W1 D1 (both home)

      I’d give Arsenal, Chelsea and Everton (as he won away there) to Kenny, and I guess if I’m being charitable I can let Roy off the other two as he only played them away from home.

      If Kenny has had crazy amounts of good will, it’s because he earned it as both player and manager. Even if Roy had got the fans onside with his football (which was realistically never going to happen), his comments to the media (not defending Torres from criticism from Ferguson as one of countless examples) would never have endeared him to Liverpool fans.

      In terms of funds, yes Kenny has had more than Roy. I would estimate he has spent about £40m net, whereas Roy spent somewhere approaching £20m net. Not such a huge difference considering the massive upturn in results.

      Re Torres – he wanted to leave. He’d actually started performing well again once Dalglish took over, so I very much doubt he’d have been sold by Kenny if he’d have wanted to stay.

      I don’t proclaim to be the hugest Liverpool fan, but I can certainly accept that Carroll is worth more than £3.5m – 4 league goals in 12 games worth of pitch time (a 1 in 3 scoring ratio) is not disastrous, and he’s only 22, so has time on his side to improve.

      I like to think I have shown here that I am aware of the full context of what is going on at my club; this article was never intended to demonstrate that, as I mention within the piece.

      Thanks for your comments.

  2. You are SOOOO in denial Beez…hardly scared me off it has taken me this long to stop laughing!! I also have to work….

    YOur further elaborated positionis a little sad really….First, you talk of the “huge upturn in results” under King Kenny……really is it that HUGE..?..and remember he has no Thursday night games in Europe toi have to provide resources for. Any cut in wage bill is due to this; return to Europe and wage bill will escalate again. Second, of course, Dalglish has huge good will from his playing days…couldnt agree more…I watched him many times….what a player. But his record as a manager was not as great as you claim…he won league at Blackburn because of Walker’s millions…..and his resignation the first time around at Liverpool left the club with a problem or two. Third, your estimate of £40 million net spend is somewhat out of kilter with the serious newspaper’s estimates – read any of them….I am going to quote you a piece by Tim Rich from the Guardian on Oct 1st 2011 and in no way unsymapathetic to either Kenny or Liverpool….:quite the reverse:

    “.In terms of net spending, Everton v Liverpool is now one of the most unequal of the great derbies. Since coming to Goodison Park in March 2002, Moyes has spent an estimated £25.8m more than he has received in transfer fees – less than Kenny Dalglish has spent in eight months at Anfield. Liverpool’s net outlay in that time has been £110.7m.”

    FInally, we will see what Carroll is worth when Liverpool sell him. Nobody in their right mind can ever think he was worth £35 million at the time that money was laid out by Kenny. Even if you think as you do that all his past records and past glories are fantastic……one still has to hugely doubt him and questioin his judgment over this. There are strikers in the Premiership doing better than Carroll at present and who cost less than £2million and their clubs would ask about £3.5 millions for…look at Norwich for one..Do you forget that 10months before Kenny bought him….Newcastle offered him to allcomers for £1.25millions…..or are you in denial about that too……So many other really good managers who do consistently spot bargain players and ascertain their potential…..none of them….NONE of them were tempted to buy Carroll at a fraction of the price Kenny paid…Oh yes, and what did Carroll do between being offered for £1.25 millions and being bought for £35millions….oh yes, have a couple of fairly unsavoury brushes with the law…..and get injured a lot!

  3. Hey Phil,
    So let me get this straight, you’ve come onto a stats based blog to dispute articles when you don’t even understand the basic concepts of “gross” and “net”?
    Hodgson managed Liverpool for 20 league games last season and Dalglish 18 last. Every team has played every other team after 19 league games so if last season in the league isn’t a good basis for a statistical comparison I don’t know what is.
    Furthermore Dalglish has achieved the huge improvement (and it is huge but I wouldn’t expect you to understand why) despite having a £35 million player in the team most of the time, a player you clearly don’t rate.
    From your perspective, Hodgson should’ve benefited from NOT having Carroll in the side yet his league performance was even worse than Souness. How could this be Phil?

  4. Dear Self named one

    Here are the dictionary definitions of gross and net:

    1. (Economics, Accounting & Finance / Accounting & Book-keeping) remaining after all deductions, as for taxes, expenses, losses, etc. net profit

    Exclusive of deductions; total: gross profits

    So after all deductions etc….Dalglish’s net expenditure was at Oct 1st 2011 according to a respectable newspaper Merseyside correspondent – £110.7…….

    The debate here is about Dalglish’s managerial abilities…..with a slight under-current of the fact that a decent manager – ie Hodgson – was given short shrift by LFC’s fans and players partly due to the shannigans in the press of old LFC players – when the club was successful – orchestrating for a change to King Kenny in before Hodgson even had his feet under the table. This last view is widely shared by most reasonable football pundits. LFC has a good record at keeping managers..up till then…giving them a chance…do you think 20 games was sufficient? And your point about Carroll is so lame….crazy…..Hodgson would most certainly have benefitted from being allowed to spend money as Dalglish has…..I think most LFC fans would agree with that……You are right by the way that I dont rate Carroll……do you?….for £35millions?……Just dream of some of the strikers you could have had for that!!!!

  5. Oh yes Beez as this site is so concerned with statistics……Your assessment of Carroll’s scoring record as one in three….is based on all the Premier League games he has played at both his clubs….and it is slightly more than 1 in 3……Whereas at Liverpool his Prem League record is 4 in 18…which is one goal in every 4.5 games……and you do seem so keen to judge the Dalglish/Hodgson issue on Prem League statistics alone…..Another interesting fact about your judgment of the value of Carroll being significantly higher than £3.5 millions……interesting to look at Demba Ba’s cost and scoring record at Newcastle….8 in 10 Prem League….& the games in which he did not score were played during Ramadan……so he was unable to eat during day time hours….Oh yes and his cost……a big zero…free transfer……Big bloke does all the things that Carroll is supposed to do very well…..much better……The Newcastle fans must think that all their collective birthdays have come at once!! .Surely a bit of careful research by Kenny and his back rooms boys….I am certain Ba would have loved to have played for Liverpool….But then, of course, it appears Kenny has sold all the Black players in the 1st team squad except Johnson at the club…..I am now going to quote from …..http://www.diversemag.co.uk/race-detail/history-of-black-players-at-liverpool-fc-36/…..in a stream entitled The History of Black Players at Liverpool FC…..the contributors to the blog appear to be mostly Liverpool FC supporters also..

    “There is hardly any first team black players now at Liverpool, a real shame, it used to be a very diverse club but in recent seasons they hardly buy any black players, and so far this season, daglish has sold most of the black squad players and has only bought in White players. They regularly field an all white line up and this season the only black player in the whole squad is Glenn johnson. But no one will say anything because their too scared but compared to all the other premiership clubs, Liverpool do not employ black players.”

    Now the history of LIverpool FC and racism….that is interesting material….see Dave Hills’ wonderful book on Barnes and a subsequent statistical analysis of the number of Black players that have played for Liverpool compared to other Premier League and major European clubs WOULD make very interesting statistical reading. Not only that but the number of Black players that undoubtedly do exist in LFC’s academy…..compared to the number that graduate to the first team…would also benefit from some detailed analyses……Methinks that there might be some sort of discrimination taking place here within the scouting, choice of team and throughout the club….not quite certain what it is…..What do you think LFC’s supporters and Beez & The Idiot in particular…..

    Oh and just for ther record the Balckburn team that won the Premier League in 1994-95 under Dalglish…..just how many Black players were in that squad……hey another big zero

    And another intereting fact about that season…AFC Ajax won the Champions League….won it three times on the trot…..Guess how many Black players were in their first team squad Bogarde, Rikaard, Davids, Kluivert, Seedorf……I could go on……

  6. Perhaps we could now put some of these various themes together. Liverpool FC very dominant in English football in 1970s and 1980s…..and the same time the most consistent English team in Europe at a time when a number of English clubs won the European Cup…along with Aston Villa and Notts Forest……and most if not all the players….white British…..Yets since 1990 in English football LFC not so successful…and the 2005 Champs League win was really a bit of an aberation…..a stand out statistic that requires some clear and particularistic explanation – opponents thinking they had won at half time etc – rather than a trend. The trend was, in anything, downwards….LFC not being in any European comp six years later!……SO……maybe LFC needs to employ more Black players if it wants to do well at present…..ALL the teams that are successful…both domestically and within Europe….do so

  7. Phil – I don’t mind a bit of debate regarding the merits of Carroll and net spend and so on, but I’m not going to indulge you any further.

    I let your comment about Dalglish’s “resignation the first time around at Liverpool left the club with a problem or two” slip even though I find that offensive in view of the fact that he left due to the stress he incurred following Hillsborough, but I’m not going to allow you to imply he’s racist, that’s not on.

    It’s not just that, but your arguments in relation to the issue (Blackburn, Ajax, Champions League etc) are absurd and non-sensical.

    Thanks for reading, but your views are no longer welcome here.

  8. I never ever said that Kenny Dalglih was a racist….never….nor would I…….read what I wrote…I think I #refer to some form of discrimionation taking place historically….structurally…within the whole club…..I never use the word you selected…..Interesting that you suggest it though I think. I think an apology is due there please.

    And in that libelous, defamatory statement you just dismiss my other arguments as absurd….no actual response to them..attempt to deal with them…..so you can go on writing more biased and ill informed stuff.

    This despite earlier goading me to reply – “perhaps I frightened him off” – you have a highly inflated view of your own intellect my lad.

    Please let me know, what’s absurd about my arguments about Blackburn – no Black players when they won the Premiership and out of European Cup in first round. No team has won the Premiership or EC since without Black players….as your ex manager was so fond of saying….FACT

    Ajax were the first team to use many Black players….now many go to richer European clubs…and all other ….well most.!!!!…have caught up….Ajax were very successful…..FACT

    Liverpool have only one Black player in their first team squad….commented on by many LFC blogs unfavourably…..The ones that were in it have been shipped out by Dalglish….FACT

    Not sure how many Black players have graduated from the LFC academy to 1st team….I suspect its not many…if any…….FACT….this claim to fact is reliable on info from LFC own fans

    LFC were fortunate to win the CL in 1995…….and their record since further confirms this….FACT

    Carroll was bought at an absurdly inflated price…..BA would have been better value for money…..or a dozen or so other Black players……FACT

    You have selected Carroll’s scoring record to suit your own purposes…..FACT

    Hodgson was given no time and very little money…..FACT

    English football is ravaged by racism…..hence the Kick Racism out of Football campaign…..and endless evidence of such racism….widely recognised in the game…..FACT

    Phil did not say that Kenny Dalglish is a racist…….FACT

    I would like an apology…..FACT

    • To quote you Phil:

      “Liverpool have only one Black player in their first team squad….commented on by many LFC blogs unfavourably…..The ones that were in it have been shipped out by Dalglish….FACT”

      you’re right about Glen Johnson, but I have to wonder if the black players you’re referring to as being shipped out is in fact just one player by the name of Tom Ince. Now while I accept that he was sold to Blackpool FC during Dalglish’s time as manager I have to wonder whether you realise he never played for the first team. He went on loan to Blackpool from the reserves and while he was good, he wasn’t good enough to play in the premiership, so for the sake of first team football he left for Blackpool.

    • 2005 we were lucky to win it, 2007 we were unlucky to lose to Ac Milan, even the Milan fans say that.

      2006 we won the FA Cup and up to his final year in charge, with Rafael Benitiez LFC successfully competed in all competitions including the Premiership, so I’m not entirely sure what record you’re speaking of. Unless you’re speaking of our record since we stupidly fired Rafael Benitez and then ended up 12 hours from administration.

  9. Good to know that Kenny agrees with you, Andrew…..that there no racism at LFC following Saurez’s misconduct charge by the FA for racially abusing Patrice Evra….

    • What is it about Man U fans that they think Evra was justified in saying to Suarez “go fuck your sister” but Suarez is unjustified in saying “you what mate” (or the equivalent thereof).

      I find it in rather poor taste that Man U fans will seek to belittle LFC fans about our team when we are simply having a friendly debate between ourselves, especially when the subject of racist tendencies are being mentioned. I find this particularly deplorable simply because the reason so many black players are well respected today is because John Barnes and the other black players, none of whom played for Man U, were booed and jeered at by Man U fans en masse and rather than react to it played their football instead.

  10. As someone who is not a liverpool fan but enjoys football debate and stats I found this very interesting. It’s unfair to judge either manager against each other but this has raised some interesting questions about King Kenny’s future. John Henry is known to be an advocate of “Moneyball” and is even referenced in the Brad Pitt film. I imagine that come the end of the season Dalglish will be jusged on pounds per points. I appreciate this may be unfair considering that he could end up with two cup wins which would amount to a good season but owners want Champions League football and I’m not convinced that Liverpool have moved in the right direction for it.

    I wasn’t able to find stats for it but based on transfers and wages would anyone have an idea how much Kenny and Liverpool have paid per point?

    • Not sure how much each point has cost, but clearly the points tally has not been good enough this season.

      That said, performances *generally* have been good, and the stats suggest they’ve ony been some poor finishing away from being much higher up the table.

      Regardless of what happens in the cup final this weekend, I’ve personally seen enough positives to merit Dalglish getting another season. It will be very interesting to see if FSG and John W Henry feel the same.

      Thanks for reading, and cheers for the comment.

  11. Pingback: Hodgson and England: The Stats Don’t Bode Well | Bass Tuned To Red

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