At the time of setting this page up, Luis Suárez had scored fifteen league goals in 2013/14 after just ten appearances.
This was a truly remarkable goal scoring return. Last season he took twenty matches to score fifteen goals, and even more notable is that he only scored fifteen league goals in the season-and-a-half prior to Brendan Rodgers taking charge at Anfield. His complete league record can be seen here.
His record inspired me to create this page, in order to monitor his progress as the season went on. Now that the season is complete, we can see how the forecast fluctuated across his thirty-three appearances.
The forecast was calculated by multiplying his Shots Per Game average for the whole season after each game by the number of Remaining Games, in order to determine how many Future Shots he had left.
This figure was then multiplied by his Shot Conversion for the season at that point, to give a prediction of how many Future Goals he would score in theory, and this was then added to his Total Goals so far to give the Season Total forecast.
Here’s the table of the results.
We can see that Suárez scored thirty-one goals in thirty-three games, and let’s not forget that he didn’t take a single penalty either. Let’s take a closer look at how the forecast fluctuated as the season went on.
Suárez’ shot conversion percentage was at it’s lowest point of the season as the campaign drew to a close, though of course after starting so well it was inevitably going to drop to some extent, and as the table at the top of the page shows, this was still his most effective season for Liverpool by far.
He still scored nine goals in his last seventeen games, and that’s a fine return. But the opening sixteen games, which saw twenty-two Suárez goals, is the spell that will live longest in the memory.
Related posts you might like:
How Many League Goals Can SaS Score – A prediction from earlier in the season.