Brendan Rodgers: The Right Appointment?

Brendan Rodgers

As Liverpool’s season appears to be petering out, there is lots of talk online that perhaps FSG hired the wrong man last summer, or indeed that they shouldn’t have fired Kenny Dalglish in the first place.

I’m going to look at if Liverpool have improved on last season, and also at the form of the other names that were in the frame to be appointed as manager at Anfield last summer, to try to see if Rodgers really is the right man to lead Liverpool forward.
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In Praise Of Jordan Henderson

JH v AVFC

During Liverpool’s 2-1 win at Villa Park on Sunday, I was surprised to hear the co-commentator Alan Smith award the man of the match honour to Steven Gerrard.

Sure, the Liverpool captain scored the winner (which was his second in three league games after three-and-a-half years without one) and acrobatically cleared a goal bound shot off the line, but overall I felt he didn’t contribute as much as Jordan Henderson did.

The Tomkins Times run a stats round up after every match (the latest of which you can read here, if you’re a subscriber), where they list the top three Liverpool performers for various stats. Surprisingly, Henderson didn’t feature anywhere, so it seems his performance was based on a solid performance in a variety of areas, rather than shining in one.

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Final Third Efficiency

After Liverpool capitulated to a 3-1 defeat against Southampton, I noticed that the Reds had completed their second lowest number of final third passes in the league this season: 58.

Although I didn’t see the match, my instant thought was “no wonder they lost, as you won’t create many decent opportunities from so few passes in the attacking third of the pitch”.

Which lead me to this thought: in order to win games you need to score goals. You therefore need to have as many shots on target as you can, and in order to create those you need to pass the ball well in the final third of the field. By dividing accurate final third passes (FTC) by shots on target (SoT), you can create a final third efficiency (FTE) figure for both teams, to see which team made the most of the ball up front.

Having looked up Liverpool’s stats for the 68 league games from the past two seasons, the findings suggest that a good performance in this metric will definitely lead to a successful team. Obvious perhaps, but I have now been able to quantify it.

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Carra’s Cameos

Jamie Carragher

Whenever Jamie Carragher has been brought on in the last few minutes of games (such as during Liverpool’s recent 3-0 victory over QPR at Loftus Road), people online often question the decision as (for instance) it would perhaps make more sense to give Sebastian Coates some minutes and experience, or perhaps reward Jordan Henderson’s good form with some playing time.

Looking at the statistics for the Premier League this season on EPLIndex, it starts to become a bit clearer why it is Carragher who is summoned from the bench ahead of the others.

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Spain: The Through Ball Kings

This piece has been updated since it was first published on Tuesday 20th November.

I have noted previously on this site how Barcelona attempt far more through-balls than any other side in Europe, and whilst researching a forthcoming piece for The Tomkins Times via WhoScored, I couldn’t help but notice what happens when you sort this season’s Premier League players by the number of accurate through-balls per game they play:

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Rodgers Requires Reina

I have written on here previously regarding how, in save percentage terms, Brad Jones should possibly be Liverpool’s goalkeeper ahead of Pepe Reina (whose form has declined year-on-year at Anfield).

In the Premier League this season, Jones has saved 69% of the shots he has faced whilst Reina has struggled and only saved half of the attempts on target that have come his way.

But the modern game, and especially Brendan Rodgers’ penchant for a passing, possession based football, requires a keeper to offer more than simply stopping shots.

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Statistics and Perspective

Steven Gerrard celebrates Luis Suárez's disallowed goal against Everton

One of the lead stories on The Independent’s website is currently “Steve Gerrard: Everton are like Stoke, all they do is play the ball long”. The piece has the sub heading of “We were only team in derby trying to play, says Liverpool captain, but stats suggest otherwise”.

The writer then goes on to show why Gerrard is wrong, and at the bottom includes selected match stats under the title of “Dubious Derby Claim”. Amongst these are the figures for ‘Long Passes Attempted’, which they have as 47 by each side.

So Liverpool’s captain must be wrong in his assertion that the Blues are a long-ball side. Or so I thought until I checked the match numbers with EPLIndex.

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Barcelona, Alex Song, and Moneyball

Alex Song

I read an interesting article on The Tomkins Times today, which identified through balls as an important soccer metric which correlates with footballing success. Using the data on WhoScored, it’s easy to see why this belief was established, as Barcelona, arguably the greatest club side of all time, are streets ahead of other teams in Europe’s top five leagues.

Here are the figures from around Europe last season:

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Joe Allen: £15m Bargain

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Joe Allen picked up his second man of the match award of the season in Liverpool’s 2-0 defeat by Arsenal on Sunday. Whilst that might be damning him with faint praise (the “best of a bad bunch”, and all that) after a poor showing by Liverpool, there is no denying that he has settled instantly as the indispensable heart of the Reds’ midfield.

Using EPLIndex’s Top Stats function, I have looked at where in the league Allen currently ranks on a number of key stats for midfielders. As it’s early days for the 2012/13 campaign, I have restricted the comparison to those players that have played all 270 minutes so far.

At present, Joe Allen is ranked:

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Passing Progress

Liverpool concluded their pre-season preparations for the 2012/13 campaign with a 3-1 win over Bayer Leverkusen at Anfield on Sunday. Whilst I missed the game myself, I saw some very interesting and encouraging post-match tweets from @AnfieldIndex:

LFC Vs Leverkusen Total Passes: Total: 613 Accurate: 549 Accuracy: 89.56%

Comparing the above stats with Liverpool’s figures from last season illustrates how much more of the ball they’re now having.

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Swansea Stats: Brendan’s Bravery Shines Through

This article first appeared on The Tomkins Times on 11th July 2012. Statistics are for Premier League games only, and were sourced from EPLIndex and WhoScored.

Brendan Rodgers’ Swansea City earned numerous plaudits for their style of play in 2011/12, and the manager has subsequently been rewarded with his first big football management role. But what exactly was it about his management of a smaller team like Swansea that convinced John W Henry and co. that the Ulsterman was the right man for the enormous job at Anfield? I have taken a look at the Swans’ statistics to try to find out.

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Liverpool FC 2011/12 In Stats: The Good, The Bad And The Ugly

This article first appeared on The Tomkins Times on 20th May 2012. Statistics are for Premier League games only, and were sourced from EPLIndex and WhoScored.

Has there ever been a more confusing season for fans of Liverpool FC than this one? The match statistics have generally been positive, performances mixed, and results all over the place, so every fan you ask has differing views on whether Dalglish deserved to have his contract terminated.

I will be presenting the numbers for different aspects of play, to try to establish who has performed well in which areas, and how the team as a whole performed in 2011/12. I’m sure you will have read quite a few of these stats before, but this is an attempt to flesh out the story of the season through all of the numbers available. To start, some interesting stats about the season as a whole: Continue reading

Quantifying Progress, From Roy To Kenny

This piece first appeared on The Tomkins Times on March 15th 2012, and the stats included are correct up to and including the match away at Sunderland on March 10th.

After a series of poor league results, including three defeats in a row for the first time in nearly a decade, stern questions are being asked of Kenny and his team’s management of Liverpool, probably for the first time; were the most suitable players purchased in the summer, have the tactics been right, and so on.

Things have been so bad lately that Dalglish’s recent league form has matched that of his predecessor’s; Roy Hodgson recorded an average of 1.25 points-per-game at Liverpool, and the Reds have the same figure from their previous sixteen matches this season too (though as the first eleven games this term yielded 1.73 points-per-game, things haven’t reached Hodgson-esque levels overall just yet).

I wrote a brief piece for EPLIndex recently which demonstrated that only on very few occasions this season have Liverpool been bested by their opponents at various match statistics, illustrating that, even if the results haven’t always been quite what is desired, at least the performances have generally been good.

But there was no comparison to other teams in that article, so whilst the numbers were good, were they any better or worse than anyone else, or what had come before at Liverpool?

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Missing Maxi

Maxi Rodriguez finished last season in surely the best form of his entire career. In his final four starts for Liverpool he scored seven goals, including two hat-tricks. Not only that, but he was in the match day squad of eighteen for every single league game last season, aside from the final day defeat at Villa Park, so it seems that he was a good player to have at the team’s disposal throughout the season, under both Roy Hodgson and Kenny Dalglish.

Yet this season he has largely been frozen out, and I can’t think of any logical reason why.

So far in the league, he has only featured in seven of the matches, has not completed any of them, and has played less minutes than seventeen members of Liverpool’s squad (to give that some context, the only players who have featured less are Coates, Shelvey, Flanagan, Aurelio and Doni; none of whom are better than second choice in their position).

Which if Kenny thinks the players he has selected have been playing better than Maxi has been would be fine by me, but there is very little evidence to suggest that this is the case. For starters, check out the minutes-per-goal statistics for the Liverpool squad in the Premier League this season:

I have included every player who has scored, plus Stewart Downing on the basis that he has often taken a place in the side that perhaps could have gone to Rodriguez. Whilst he is behind one of the out-and-out strikers, Maxi has still found the net more regularly than his fellow midfielders. When we look at the shooting accuracy figures, it’s clear to see why:

Once again, it’s Rodriguez and Bellamy who are leading the way, with the likes of Henderson, Kuyt and Downing once again lower down the rankings than the Argentine they have been keeping out of the side.

What else can we assess the players on? Soccernomics author Simon Kuper has said (in this interview here) regarding stats that are useful:

“There are a couple I’ve been told by people in the game. If you’re looking for an attacking midfielder, a great stat is pass completion in final third of the pitch. The best players are really good at that”.

(23/03/12 Update: In this interview, Rafa Benitez talks about what statistics are key and says “The main thing for me is passes per game, passing accuracy and in particular final third passing accuracy“).

Maxi comes into that category of player, so how does he fare against his Reds colleagues?

It’s probably no surprise to see the familiar pairing at the top of this chart, as with the previous two.

There’s an obvious counter-argument to the findings in these statistics; Maxi and Bellamy have played less than the other players listed, and with a smaller sample of figures there is more opportunity to post better percentages.

Whilst that is true, it’s not as if the other players keeping Maxi out of the team are performing nearly as well, and in a season when Liverpool have a woeful scoring record (just 1.11 goals per league game at the time of writing), to my mind it seems ludicrous not to give Rodriguez more game time.

Unless of course Kenny knows something about Maxi that we don’t, which is entirely plausible. But I believe that Rodriguez could give the Reds an injection of nous and game intelligence that has been sorely lacking of late, and which the team is currently crying out for.

Statistics sourced from EPLIndex. Please take a look at my other articles, a list of which can be found here.

Pass and Move vs Pass and Hoof: Liverpool’s Passing Statistics 2010/11

This article first appeared on The Tomkins Times on 12th July 2011. Stats sourced from Anfield Index unless stated. All figures quoted are average per Premier League match.

One of the most surprising statistics from the season just ended is that Liverpool passed the ball more accurately under Roy Hodgson than they did under Kenny Dalglish.

Sure, it was a 74.78% success rate for Roy compared to 74.08% for Kenny, so not a lot in it, but Hodgson still takes the honours.

The Reds were far more successful under Dalglish (1.83 points per game) than they were under Hodgson (1.25) though, so how can we explain these passing statistics?

I will be looking at various aspects of passing to try and explain this slightly curious phenomenon.

No doubt Roy Hodgson, king of the hoof, instructed his team to make more long passes than Kenny Dalglish did, right?

Well yes, but not by much at all. Unfortunately the stats for unsuccessful long passes are not available, but I’m sure you can guess who I think would come out on ‘top’ there.

One very fascinating discovery from the passing statistics is the lop-sidedness of Liverpool’s play last season. If ever you want proof that the Reds need a decent left sided midfielder, and hopefully new signing Stewart Downing will fill that gap, then this should help:

I can only assume that a lack of quality options on the left side of the pitch lead Liverpool to switch play to the right side rather than the left around 18 times more every match. This must surely have lead to a degree of predictability that the opposition could benefit from? That said, if I had the choice of passing to Konchesky or Johnson, I know who I’d pick.

As Andy Carroll has been brought on board at great expense to be a target man, it’s logical that Liverpool will need to make the most of their crossing. How did they get on in this respect last season?

Worryingly, the Reds were more successful at crossing under Roy Hodgson, before Carroll had even come to the club. I’m sure Damien Comolli is aware of this fact, and also that Stewart Downing and Charlie Adam, both of whom have recently been acquired by Liverpool, found teammates with 24.38% and 23.47% of their crosses respectively last season, above the average for the Liverpool squad.

As I mentioned here, Pepe Reina’s form in goal improved under Dalglish, but how about his kicking accuracy?

It did improve once Roy Hodgson’s goalkeeping coach Mike Kelly had been removed from the premises, but not by a massive amount. I suspect quite a lot of these kicks would have been shorter under Dalglish’s management, and so more likely to reach their intended target by default.

In terms of the direction of the team’s passing, I was quite surprised by the following figures:

Roy Hodgson’s team played a higher percentage of their passes forward, and a lower percentage backwards than Dalglish’s. Clearly, the differences weren’t huge, but I’m sure most of you reading this would have assumed it was the other way round, much like I did.

One theory I’ve heard (and, in principle, agreed with) regarding Roy’s higher passing success rate was that his team passed it around at the back under little pressure (which improved their statistics) before hitting it long.

Whilst that may be the case, it’s surprising to see that Roy was slightly ahead in both halves of the pitch, and not just the defensive end. These figures do not include goal kicks and throw-ins, though I wouldn’t expect them to alter the percentages hugely.

To try and break it down further, I used The Guardian’s chalkboard data and divided the pitch up into six sections as per this example:

Section 1 includes Liverpool’s goal area, through to section 6 where the opposition’s goal is to be found. Here’s a breakdown of where on the pitch the team attempted passes under the two managers, and likewise for completed passes. Please bear in mind that these figures will not match the above defensive or attacking half ones, as they also include goal-kicks and throw-ins.

These statistics tie-in a bit more with what we saw from the pitch itself; Roy Hodgson’s team were making significantly more passes than Kenny Dalglish’s in the defensive half of the pitch. As a lot of these would have been attempted under relatively little pressure, Roy’s side were able to complete more passes too.

Perhaps the most revealing information of this whole study can be found by looking at the average pass completion rate for each of the six zones:

As you can see, the figures are fairly similar for every zone apart from the most attacking one (area 6), where Kenny’s team completed almost 7.5% more passes. This probably goes a long way to explaining why they scored an extra 0.74 goals per game on average.

Of course, this great a variety of statistics can be used to prove pretty much whatever you like. But in virtually all of these comparisons, the differences between the two managers are fairly small.

Except the passing success rate for the final sixth of the pitch where Kenny romps home, and for me that’s the key fact here. Roy’s team could knock around the back all they liked; Kenny’s team put it in the opposition net.

Advantage Dalglish.

Please take a look at my other articles, a list of which can be found here.

Liverpool’s Passing Success Rate 2010/11

As I have had a few enquirires regarding this, I thought I’d post the answer here.

In the Premier League in 2010/11, Liverpool completed 74.46% of their passes.

Interestingly, they completed slightly more under Roy Hodgson’s leadership (74.78%) than they did during the tenure of Kenny Dalglish (74.08%).

A more in-depth analysis of the statistics will be available in future, but hopefully this answers people’s main query for the time being.

Please take a look at my other articles, a list of which can be found here.

21 July 2011 – My full analysis of these figures can now be read here.