Tonight’s fixture provides an interesting match up between two teams with fairly similar records this season. Sadly for Liverpool, based on the statistics it would seem that Spurs will probably win a tight contest.
The Reds have the better defensive record in the league this season (with 4 cleans sheets and 16 goals against, compared to 1 clean sheet and 22 conceded), but Tottenham currently have the better offensive record (having scored 23 goals to Liverpool’s 17). However, breaking these numbers down further will show why I think the home side will triumph.
Although Liverpool have conceded fewer shots on target and fewer goals than their rivals tonight, both teams have conceded the same percentage of the shots on target faced – 39%.
However, at the other end of the pitch, Spurs have scored 31% of their own shots on target, compared to the Reds’ 27%, and the Londoners have had more shots on target at home than any other side in the Premier League – 7.1 per game – whilst the Merseysiders are ranked 6th for shots on target away, with 4.7 per match. Spurs’ shooting accuracy (44.6%) also trumps Liverpool’s (36.3%) so far in this campaign too.
It’s not all doom and gloom for Brendan Rodgers though. The Reds’ passing accuracy (86.9%) and possession (57.3%) away from home has on average been better than Spurs’ has at the Lane (with figures of 84.4% and 53.2% respectively), and Liverpool have the edge on tackles and duels too.
The Reds have won 33 more tackles (with a better win rate than Spurs by 4.2%) and 87 more duels (though the win rate is only 0.4% better), so Liverpool seem to have a slight advantage in the combativeness stakes.
I don’t think there’ll be a lot in it tonight, and it’s unlikely to be 4-0 like last year, but I reckon Spurs’ greater edge in front of goal will see them nick it by two goals to one. Come on, Reds, prove me wrong!