Andy Carroll: Finding Form

Andy Carroll has just completed his first full season at Liverpool, but his return of eleven goals and four assists in fifty-six appearances in all competitions since signing from Newcastle hardly seems good enough for a £35m striker. It breaks down like this:

Appearances per goal (ApG): 5.09

Appearances per assist (ApA): 14

Appearances per goal or assist (ApGA): 3.73

The below graph shows the trend for Carroll’s ApGA figure since his sixth appearance for the Reds, as that was the match when he first scored:

As Liverpool will be hoping for around a goal every other game from Carroll, plus occasional assists, the figures don’t make for particularly pleasant reading.

However, I realised when compiling the figures that to judge Carroll on his productivity per appearance is a little harsh, as he has made several very late cameos as a substitute; indeed, adding together the time he has played in his eleven shortest appearances for Liverpool totals only eighty-six minutes, so less than one full match. He has also only completed ninety minutes in exactly half of his run-outs for the Reds.

To try to assess his progress more fairly, I have therefore divided his pitch time into “matches” (so blocks of ninety minutes, in other words), to see how his productivity has fared over his Liverpool career. Doing this reveals that Carroll has only played 38.7 “matches” for Liverpool so far, or one full league season essentially.

Whilst the below numbers are obviously better than those above, and any regular substitute player could make the same case, I think this gives a fairer verdict on his output:

“Matches” per goal (MpG): 3.52

“Matches” per assist (MpA): 9.68

“Matches” per goal or assist (MpGA): 2.58

We can see that Carroll has scored or assisted a goal every 2.58 “matches” he has played; considering the relatively slow start that he has had at Anfield, those figures are encouraging.

It’s interesting to note that Carroll has only had three-or-more ninety minute appearances in a row on four occasions so far in his Liverpool career. Looking at these thirteen games in isolation, he has four goals and an assist, meaning that his ApGA figure of 2.60 for these games is essentially the same as his MpGA figure overall.

Simply put, with a run in the team, he appears to increase his productivity. It’s also important to bear in mind that the thirteen matches refered to above include two Merseyside derbies (including one at Wembley), two games against Tottenham Hotspur, plus stern tests against both Manchester City and Manchester United, so it hasn’t entirely been a case of Carroll boosting his tally against lesser opposition.

This is where my real point regarding ‘finding form’ comes in. In his last seven run-outs for Liverpool (where he completed six of the matches and has averaged eighty-two minutes per appearance), Carroll has scored three goals and provided one assist, to give him an impressive MpGA figure of 1.60. This compares very favourably with his MpGA of 2.94 for his first forty-nine appearances for the Reds, where he averaged a far lower 59.4 minutes per appearance.

Bear in mind that had he scored a second goal in the FA Cup final, and he was only millimetres from doing so don’t forget, he’d have an MpGA of 1.28; in other words, a goal or an assist every 115 minutes he was on the pitch.

If Carroll maintained an MpGA of 1.60 across forty full games next season, he’d register a combined total of twenty-five goals and assists; impressive figures, though of course seven games is too small a sample to draw any realistic long-term conclusions from. That said, he should naturally improve to some extent next season by being fitter (it’s important to recall when judging his productivity that he was never fully fit during his first half-season at Liverpool), and by having gained experience at Euro 2012.

The figures definitely suggest that to get the most out of Carroll, he has to be played regularly, and whoever the new manager at Anfield is will do well to bear that in mind.

Please take a look at my other articles, a list of which can be found here.

It’s A Rich Man’s World: Liverpool vs Man City

A common stick to beat Kenny Dalglish with was the fact that he spent somewhere north of £100m on players, yet finished a massive thirty-seven points behind the champions, Manchester City.

When comparing the net-spend of the two clubs since Manchester City were first bought by Thaksin Shinawatra in the summer of 2006/07, it is pretty clear why there has been a gulf between the two teams recently. It also makes for an interesting comparison as the 2007/08 season was the first full season where the Reds were under the ownership of Tom Hicks and George Gillett.

Bear in mind, the below was compiled simply using Transferleague‘s transfer figures, and does not include wages. This piece in The Guardian shows that Manchester City spent £21m more on wages in 2010/11 than they earned, before transfer spending and other expenditure is accounted for; a truly mind-boggling set of financial results.

It is also fair to say that at the start of the time period looked at, Liverpool were roughly as far ahead of Manchester City as they are behind them now; twenty-six points better in 2006/07, with a Champions League final appearance that season, and three straight years at Europe’s top table behind them, so it was understandable that City had to spend large sums in order simply to catch up.

Neither is this an attempt to assess how well the two clubs have spent their money or managed their teams; I have defended Dalglish and his signings on this site in the past, and may well continue to do so, but it is fair to say that they underperformed in the league this season. Indeed, they finished behind clubs that have spent less than them last season, irrespective of the huge sums that City have invested.

The below table purely shows the cumulative net spend that Liverpool and Manchester City have made since the summer of 2007; what it proves or disproves is up to you!

After 2007/08, when both clubs’ new owners made a similar statement of intent (Liverpool outspent City by £730,000 net), the difference rocketed in favour of the Sky Blues, as Shinawatra made way for Sheikh Mansour, and City have been making ground (and obviously going past the Reds) ever since.

As I said, this is not a defence of Liverpool’s transfer spend; rather it is a very simplistic way of demonstrating the realities of the two clubs’ spending over the last few years; far greater football finance analysis can be found at the excellent Swiss Ramble blog for instance.

I just wanted a simple illustration of the financial gulf that exists between the two clubs, and I’m pretty sure the above graph demonstrates it perfectly. It certainly appears that John W Henry and FSG will have to invest very heavily before Liverpool can compete at the top end of the table.

Please take a look at my other articles, a list of which can be found here.

Stewart Drowning In Expectation

This article originally appeared on The Tomkins Times on 13 May 2012.

Anfield. Tuesday night, at about ten to nine. The last home game of a topsy-turvy season for Liverpool.

Stewart Downing is about to attempt to bag his first Premier League goal for the Reds in much the same fashion that a goal-less Peter Crouch did against Portsmouth in November 2005; a penalty. A free shot, from twelve yards out.

Downing strikes the ball. The keeper goes the wrong way, the ball is inside the post…

But not by quite enough, it rebounds out and Downing remains without a Premier League goal for the Reds, much like Crouch did on that winter afternoon seven years ago. Potential cheers turn to groans in an instant.

Perhaps a more damning statistic for a player bought in to set up opportunities for his colleagues is that the former Aston Villa man has yet to register an assist in the league for Liverpool either.

For £20m that seems like a poor return. But this is partly where I believe the problem lies; his price tag. Much like a big money move appears to have hampered Andy Carroll, though in fairness the Geordie has finally shown some continued good form in the last few weeks.

It’s not Downing’s fault that he cost so much. Indeed, I’m sure he’d much rather he had cost a lot less, as that sort of expenditure leads to huge expectations both from the fans (who are desperate for the good times to return to Anfield) and the press (who love a ‘£20m Kop Flop’ headline at the best of times).

At heart though, all Liverpool fans know that Downing will always be a ‘Steady Eddie’ footballer, and not a £20m man in the conventional sense. Yet still he gets berated in the stands and online, so how poorly has he performed this season?

Ignoring his lack of assists (as the strikers are often to blame by not converting decent chances; witness Carroll thumping the Kop end crossbar against Swansea if you don’t believe me), he’s the 15th highest ranked midfielder for number of chances created in the Premier League this season, and 20th best player overall. That’s not spectacular, it’s not poor, but it’s decent enough.

Within his chance creation figures, he has created eleven clear-cut chances this season, which is at least four more than any other Liverpool player. Perhaps more interestingly, the only players with a higher figure than that in the top six of the Premier League this season are Gareth Bale (last season’s player of the year), David Silva (the early frontrunner for this season’s award, and the top player for assists in the Premier League this season) and Robin van Persie, the eventual recipient of the honour. That suggests to me that maybe Downing does belong at the top end of the Premier League. How else can we judge his performance?

Soccernomics author Simon Kuper has been quoted as saying “If you’re looking for an attacking midfielder, a great stat is pass completion in final third of the pitch. The best players are really good at that”. Similarly, in this interview, Rafa Benitez points out the value of final third passing accuracy, and reveals that the average for England, Italy and Spain is around 64-65%.

Stewart Downing has completed 82% of the passes he has attempted in the final third of the pitch in the Premier League this season, considerably above the average for the top European leagues. For Liverpool, he is second only to the mercurial Maxi Rodriguez, and only by one percent at that. He may not have always taken the correct option in the final third, but the ability appears to be there at least.

Perhaps he’s not helped in regards to the fans’ perception of him as the main attribute to judge him on is crossing; he seldom gets past his defensive opponent after all, which is often what supporters like to see from their wingers. But much like David Beckham used to, Downing can still whip in a decent delivery without getting beyond the defender.

To my mind, the statistics for crossing accuracy are about as useful as assist figures; if a player puts in a fantastic cross but the forwards are dawdling outside the penalty area, then it’s wasted, and his accuracy figure drops. This was seen during Downing’s man-of-the-match turn in this season’s Carling Cup final, as an out-of-form Andy Carroll failed to anticipate the quality deliveries that the former ‘Boro boy was serving up.

Let me be clear, I’m not trying to suggest he’s had a fantastic season by any means; his crossing is not always as incisive as it was at Wembley in February (far from it), he has yet to develop any apparent understanding with his left-sided colleague Jose Enrique, and he frequently takes the easy option when something more daring is required. But his main statistics tell us that he is generally going about his business in an efficient manner.

In short, he has provided pretty much what every one of us thought he would do before he joined the club. A solid, but not spectacular signing. I believe that he has the ability to play for a team aspiring to finish in the top four, I’m just not certain that he believes it.

The question therefore is: Would you be happy to have him on board if he was a (for instance) £7-10m squad player? My assumption is that you would; or at least, that his performances this season would not concern you as much they have.

Did the £20m bill for Downing lead in some part to Damien Comolli’s downfall? We can but wonder, as the rumours have circulated that the Frenchman’s supposed poor negotiating skills lead to him being cut loose in the recent blood-letting exercise by the Fenway Sports Group.

Those twenty million reasons might go towards explaining Comolli’s exit; I for one hope they don’t lead to Downing’s. He definitely needs to show more next season to back up his impressive statistics though, else he may yet go down as a £20m Kop flop. Not something any of us need to see with Financial Fair Play on the horizon.

Statistics sourced from EPLIndex. Please take a look at my other articles, a list of which can be found here.